The first official Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the “new series” comes up, with the headline number at 7.5%. (Source: MOSPI) This is much lower than expected, even though it’s higher than the corresponding WPI number of 6.55%. At the component level, the drop is because of the high weight of food (which is nearly [...]

Posted in ChartOfTheDay, Credit Repair, Inflation Comments Off

“Reserve Money” is an interest aspect of our banking system. Reserve money is eventually multiplied into “broad money supply”. Reserve money growth has been very high in the five to seven years, other than the massive dip in 2008. The most recent data puts it below the 10% level (at 9.8%). The concept is that [...]

Posted in ChartOfTheDay, Credit Repair, Slider Comments Off

The rupee hit a low of Rs. 54 to a dollar in December, and since then, has recovered back to Rs. 49. Much of this move involves USD sales by the RBI. Since the RBI dollar sale data is released with a 2 month lag, we’ll only know the extent of the selling in a [...]

Posted in ChartOfTheDay, Credit Repair Comments Off

Today’s chart is the huge move in the INR – largely on the back of RBI selling dollars, and some FII money returning. The 200 DMA is at 47.74 and will likely be the support for the dollar. The move has been sharp – nearly 10% in about two months! Tweet

Posted in ChartOfTheDay, Credit Repair, RupeeFutures Comments Off

The Nifty Earnings Per Share (EPS) Growth – as revealed by the National Stock Exchange – is slowing. We are again diverging from the P/E which has now crossed 19. If you think that looking at one year is bad, then let’s see longer terms. EPS Growth of the Nifty, annualized for: 1 year: 7.37% [...]

Posted in ChartOfTheDay, Credit Repair, Nifty Comments Off

Gold Returns have been wayward over the last 40 years, and I present to you, as the Chart of the Day/Week, Gold Price History in India since 1971. (Source: RBI) And rolling returns on Gold Investments. You’ll see that Gold, if it’s a cycle, is on the upper end of it. 1 year returns are [...]

Posted in ChartOfTheDay, Credit Repair Comments Off

91 day T-Bills have been slowly showing signs of stress, as the weekly auctions show. Yields are now at 8.81%, just a little short of the 8.89% high made in October. It’s important to note that while most auctions till December were of 4,000 cr., the auctions in Jan were for Rs. 6,000 cr, and [...]

Posted in ChartOfTheDay, Charts, Credit Repair Comments Off

The 12.4% return on the Nifty in January is an incredible start to the year, and the best return of the last 30months. As you can see, the number of double digit positive months are way too few, with two in 2007 and 2009 and one in 2007. This is also the second highest January [...]

Posted in ChartOfTheDay, Charts, Credit Repair, Nifty Comments Off

The RBI has provided rates that banks used to give for one year deposits, all the way back to 1976. Here’s a plot of the “high” rates today (9.25 to 10%). Much of the 90s was a 10 to 12% rate, and I remember that many bonds (IDBI etc.) offered 12%-14% to retail buyers. (We [...]

Posted in ChartOfTheDay, Charts, Credit Repair, InterestRates Comments Off

More than 155,000 cr. was taken as Repo today, which is much higher than what RBI is comfortable with (1% of bank deposits or “Net Demand and Time Liabilities” – 1% of NDTL is about 58,000 cr.) It is likely that to stem the fall of the rupee, RBI has been selling dollars and buying [...]

Posted in ChartOfTheDay, Credit Repair, Macro Comments Off