A marginal rise in the WPI, it turns out, corresponds to a steeper rise in the Consumer Price Index, with the CPI inflation showing 8.83% (WPI inflation was a mere 6.95%) I plot a WPI chart with figures of the CPI from August. Note: The CPI data only started in Jan 2011. The data from [...]

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A few macro charts for you: Broad and Narrow Money Supply are slowing M0 growth (reserve money) would fall as bank reserve requirements have fallen 1.25% this year (nearly 80,000 cr. less will be required which is quite a drop since reserve money is about 14 lakh crore or Rs. 14 trillion). M3 – or [...]

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The RBI had sold another $7.3 billion in Jan 2012, taking the FY 2011-12 (Apr to Mar) cumulative figure to net sales of $19.8B. On a cumulative basis, this is substantial but nothing compared to the amount the RBI bought in earlier years: More than $78 Billion was bought by the RBI in 07-08, and [...]

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The per-capita income growth in each state from 2004-05 to 2009-10 (data from RBI) brings out an interesting chart. You would have expected Gujarat to top the chart, but no – Gujarat’s economic growth isn’t as good when it comes to the real data than the image they show. The comparison with neighbour Maharashtra: Gujarat: [...]

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I’ve written about the upcoming FCCB problem, where a number of FCCB redemptions were coming around about now, and they were all so far under par that they would need to be redeemed, not converted to shares. Fitch has now released a report that classifies outstanding FCCBs in 2012 by stress levels and I shamelessly [...]

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Looking at the monthly returns table shows a fantastic Jan + Feb for the markets, the best since 1994. And we shouldn’t forget the Sensex either: While 1992, 1994 and 2000 were very good in Jan and Feb, the indexes subsequently retreated the rest of the year; while 1985 and 1991 carried the returns onward [...]

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The first official Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the “new series” comes up, with the headline number at 7.5%. (Source: MOSPI) This is much lower than expected, even though it’s higher than the corresponding WPI number of 6.55%. At the component level, the drop is because of the high weight of food (which is nearly [...]

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“Reserve Money” is an interest aspect of our banking system. Reserve money is eventually multiplied into “broad money supply”. Reserve money growth has been very high in the five to seven years, other than the massive dip in 2008. The most recent data puts it below the 10% level (at 9.8%). The concept is that [...]

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The rupee hit a low of Rs. 54 to a dollar in December, and since then, has recovered back to Rs. 49. Much of this move involves USD sales by the RBI. Since the RBI dollar sale data is released with a 2 month lag, we’ll only know the extent of the selling in a [...]

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Today’s chart is the huge move in the INR – largely on the back of RBI selling dollars, and some FII money returning. The 200 DMA is at 47.74 and will likely be the support for the dollar. The move has been sharp – nearly 10% in about two months! Tweet

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