91 day T-Bills have been slowly showing signs of stress, as the weekly auctions show. Yields are now at 8.81%, just a little short of the 8.89% high made in October. It’s important to note that while most auctions till December were of 4,000 cr., the auctions in Jan were for Rs. 6,000 cr, and [...]

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The 12.4% return on the Nifty in January is an incredible start to the year, and the best return of the last 30months. As you can see, the number of double digit positive months are way too few, with two in 2007 and 2009 and one in 2007. This is also the second highest January [...]

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The RBI has provided rates that banks used to give for one year deposits, all the way back to 1976. Here’s a plot of the “high” rates today (9.25 to 10%). Much of the 90s was a 10 to 12% rate, and I remember that many bonds (IDBI etc.) offered 12%-14% to retail buyers. (We [...]

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Reliance Results in Graphs. I think this is the best way to view these things. Revenues are up, Profits are down. And they’ve kinda sorta killed their EPS growth: And while revenues in Refining have gone up substantially, EBIDTA on each operating segment has gone down: They have some serious cash now (after they got [...]

Posted in Charts, Credit Repair, Dec2011, Reliance Comments Off

Last year has been quite about foreigners running out the door, while domestic institutions have been buying. And if you want to see the scale, let’s invert the FII figure and track them together: FIIs sold over 26,000 cr. worth of cash securities, which is about $5 billion. Tweet

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The Nifty was the worst of everything in 2011. I will not need to say anything after you see these:   And BRIC: And just us in Asia: Yes, we’ve all gone down this year, but the Nifty underperformed everyone else for most of the year. May 2012 be relatively less screwed up. Tweet

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And to continue with the 2011InCharts theme, we have the market snapshot since the highs of 2008: (Click for larger pic) We’re at a 16.75 P/E and near recent lows – and below both long-term moving averages. Sectors in 2011: Rea; estate was destroyed by over half; infrastructure by 39%. Banks and Midcaps were down [...]

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With a turnover of just 5138 cr., December 26, 2011 has taken volumes to a (near) five year low. (You have to ignore Diwali Mahurat trading days, the big upper circuit day in May 2009 and a few saturdays of test trading by the NSE) The chart says it all. Markets are dying. Tweet

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I spoke of the Marginal Standing Facility recently, and today we take a look at liquidity in terms of how much banks are borrowing from the RBI overnight: Over the weekend the Repo requirement was 1.73 lakh crores, a very very high amount. (total deposits in the system are about 57 lakh crores, so this [...]

Posted in ChartOfTheDay, Charts, Credit Repair, Macro Comments Off

A quick post about how the markets have done over the last few days, in both reaching a two year low (lowest since August 2009) and then doing a 4% recovery over two days. (Click to enlarge) The slope of the 50 and 200 DMA are now down and it looks like the index is [...]

Posted in Charts, Credit Repair, Nifty, WeeklySummary Comments Off