India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for March 2013 shows the slowest annual Industrial growth in 20 years, and the second lowest since 1982 (from when IIP data is available). At a measly 1% growth over last year, our average IIP number over the year is at the lowest since 1991-92. (Average IIP number is the IIP average for the whole financial year, which removes intra-year seasonality)

Data Source: IIP from MOSPI and RBI. Click for a larger picture.

Remember, 1991-92 was the last major crisis in India, when we have a Balance-of-payments issue of gargantuan proportions. The government had to resort to emergency borrowing from the IMF and had to devalue the rupee, remove the huge licencing requirements for every industry and free the economy. Growth only started after that and it took three years to reach heady levels again.

Looking at the components, we seem to have a very “secular” turn downwards:

Data Source: IIP from MOSPI and RBI. Click for a larger picture.

Mining is at its lowest ever growth number since 1982. This is likely to be the impact of court orders to cut mining until license corruption issues are sorted out.

Manufacturing is …

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The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) came in on Friday for March 2013 at 2.5% greater on a Year-on-Year basis.

Note that even with this spike (usual for March) the index at a nominal level is lower than March 2011!

Manufacturing grew at 3.17%, higher than the in the previous month (which was revised down from +2.17% to +1.93%).

(Click for larger image)

Further, on a use-based index, while Capital Goods and Basic Goods rose, the rest didn’t show much sign of recovery. Consumer durables are a worry as they continue to slide downwards.

December 2012 IIP has been revised marginally down to –0.55% from the first announced –0.50%.

But more sinister, is the 50,000 foot view. Of how India’s Industrial Production has slowed down, very dramatically. In the next post.

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The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for Feb 2013 comes in marginally positive, at 0.57% over the previous year.

While the Mining Index sank and the Electricity part went negative for the first time since 2006, the manufacturing sub-index (which has the largest weight at 75%) stayed up at 2% above the previous year.

Past data for November 2012 has been revised downwards AGAIN. The chain of events:

• Nov 2012 IIP first announced at –0.12%
• First Revision down to –0.84%
• Now further revised down to –1.01%

This does not inspire confidence in the first announced numbers.

If you want to see “use based indexes”, here they are. Capital goods went up 20%  9.5%, but everything else went down. (Click for larger picture)

While the 0.57% headline number “beats expectations”, I believe the “expecters” are largely picking numbers from the air, and even this index is so wildly volatile, has so many revisions and is basically uncorrelated with any other sensible data point out there, that it makes no sense to trade expectations or otherwise.

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The Index of Industrial Production (IIP), an indicator I tend to distrust for lack of any relation to reality, shows an uptick in Jan. (Why do I track it? It’s all we have) All the index numbers seem to show a small recovery. But it’s too early to call a turn around. Recent numbers – [...]

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The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in December 2012 has fallen 0.55% from Dec 2011. This supposedly indicates lower growth but I find the index so ludicrously volatile there is just no point doing YoY growth analysis. But I’ll do it anyhow. Note that even the absolute numbers don’t inspire confidence. Seasonally adjusted numbers, available [...]

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MOSPI has released IIP figures today. The Index of Industrial Production fell by 0.12%, year on year, in November 2012. Note the large drop from the October figure of 8%+ which has been offset now. Mining has fallen substantially over last year, while there has been moderation in both manufacturing and electricity. The use-based indexes [...]

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In a massive jump, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) jumped to +8.21% in October 2012. While Mining indexes slowed, the jump was because of the heavily weighted Manufacturing and Electricity indexes. While the spiky nature of this data makes it unreliable, it’s important to note the heavy deviation from the downtrend. This may be [...]

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I know I shouldn’t bother with figures like IIP (Index of Industrial Production) that are hugely revised every season, but since I’ve been reporting them every month, I’ll continue. The headline number fell 0.4% for September: As you can see: Mining continues to falter at -7.49%, the second worst in 6 years. Manufacturing growth in [...]

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The Index of Industrial Production (IIP), a notoriously volatile indicator, showed up at +0.06% for July 2012, compared to last year. The trend has been down (if you remove the jiggles) over the last few months. The index mimics the drop in the Manufacturing sector which holds a 75% weight. The rest – Mining and [...]

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The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for Jun 2012 is down -1.81% from the previous year. The downtrend continues in the yearly growth numbers. Electricity, though, has rebounded to 8.8%, and Mining has gone back to positive territory, though the biggest component, Manufacturing (75% weight), has fallen into negative territory. However, looking forward, there is [...]

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