For the week ended 3 December 2011, Primary Articles Inflation contracted to 5.48%. This is largely food and a good crop has made prices come down. I believe we will see inflation go temporarily negative at this rate, though the rise of the dollar will percolate into the system and raise prices very soon. Tweet

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In a shocking development – not really – Monthly inflation for the month of November has come in at 9.11%. As for the components, notice that slowly the primary articles piece is coming down, but the rest – Fuel and Manufactured goods, continue to inch up: ‘ Fuel’s up due to the revision in prices [...]

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For the week ended 26 Nov 2011, Primary Articles Inflation has dropped to 6.92%, the lowest since July 2009. As you can see it’s not just the rising “base” figure of last year, but the trend in the graph points downwards. Unfortunately since much of the data is not updated in time – some data [...]

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Primary Articles Inflation has fallen to 7.74% for the week ended 19 Nov 2011. This is the lowest since July 2009. There is both a high base effect and a lowering of prices that’s working in favour of bringing down inflation. But of course: Coal prices – Coking, non-Coking etc. – have not been updated [...]

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For the week ended 5 Nov, Primary Articles Inflation has come in at 10.39%, the lowest level since October 2009. This is good, in a way, and this is not even seeing too much of a base effect. The WPI isn’t too useful for a consumer basket but it’s what we use to work our [...]

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October Monthly Inflation – the more comprehensive Inflation report – comes in at 9.73%, which seems to be quite high as a headline number. Component wise, Fuel is up the most: While Manufactured goods is the seriously large component (65% weight) it seems to have reduced a bit in the index. This might be the [...]

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Quick note about Primary Articles Inflation on the week ended 22 Oct: Up 12% from last year: I’d mentioned last week that the headline numbers will look bad till mid December, because of a flattenned level last year. The inflationary trend (recent slope) has not gone down. jay Shah is right – we need to [...]

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Primary Articles Inflation was at 11.75% for the week ended 15 October 2011, up from last week’s 11.18%. This is expected, to a certain extent as the index levelled off here last year. The lower base is in existence till November 5. Interestingly, the number for 20 August was revised DOWN by 0.39% from 12.93% [...]

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Deepak Mohanty, ED at the RBI talks about inflation and its dynamics. I’d like to discuss part of that article, where he talks about the Inflation trajectory and how it will be determined – and make a case on timing. All emphasis is mine. [Warning: LONG post] Five factors will shape the inflation trajectory. The [...]

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I’m going to repeat this chart (see last time) as there are interesting things we are seeing. I’ll repeat the chart’s description: Reserve Money is the base money of our banking system, a level before the banks come in an multiply it with credit. It consists of the money RBI prints (“currency with the public”), [...]

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