The Nifty crossing the 200 Day Moving Average today, ending at 5,236 and breaking back up after exactly 9 months (the cross-under was May 1, 2011). Maybe it was a pregnant bear market. (Click for larger picture) Even the technical chart shows that we are at an inflexion point: The current level is just about [...]

Posted in Credit Repair, Nifty, Technicals Comments Off

The 12.4% return on the Nifty in January is an incredible start to the year, and the best return of the last 30months. As you can see, the number of double digit positive months are way too few, with two in 2007 and 2009 and one in 2007. This is also the second highest January [...]

Posted in ChartOfTheDay, Charts, Credit Repair, Nifty Comments Off

And to continue with the 2011InCharts theme, we have the market snapshot since the highs of 2008: (Click for larger pic) We’re at a 16.75 P/E and near recent lows – and below both long-term moving averages. Sectors in 2011: Rea; estate was destroyed by over half; infrastructure by 39%. Banks and Midcaps were down [...]

Posted in 2011InCharts, Charts, Credit Repair, Nifty Comments Off

The great monthly chart shows Nifty and Sensex Monthly Returns since, well, since a long long time. December, despite historically being a great month, went down -4.3%. That means we have had 9 losing months in the year – the only three positive months were March (+9%), June (+1.6%) and October (+7.8%). It has been [...]

Posted in 2011InCharts, Cha, ChartOfTheDay, Credit Repair, Nifty Comments Off

A quick post about how the markets have done over the last few days, in both reaching a two year low (lowest since August 2009) and then doing a 4% recovery over two days. (Click to enlarge) The slope of the 50 and 200 DMA are now down and it looks like the index is [...]

Posted in Charts, Credit Repair, Nifty, WeeklySummary Comments Off

Market Capitalization to GDP isn’t really a comparable figure, since one is a measure of wealth and the other dynamic measure of transactions in a year. Yet, it’s useful to see valuations in comparison with where they were earlier. (GDP figures from RBI quarterly database, Marketcap from NSE/BSE) We are at levels last seen in [...]

Posted in ChartOfTheDay, Charts, Credit Repair, Macro, Nifty Comments Off

The market went down last week on some bad news from Europe, the bad local news and in general, the lack of any good news whatsoever. The Nifty ended down 3.6% at 4866, bouncing back below the 50 Day moving average and going to a P/E below 18 once again. (Click for a larger pic) [...]

Posted in Credit Repair, Nifty, WeeklySummary Comments Off

I had earlier provided a chart of the Nifty since 2000, adjusted for inflation, including dividends and without. A cleaner way to look at the index is to “adjust down” for inflation every month (using a monthly index). I have assumed about 9.5% for November and 9% for December (we only have WPI monthly data [...]

Posted in ChartOfTheDay, Charts, Credit Repair, Nifty Comments Off

What a week. Wiped out much of the losses in November in the last two days in a rise that was almost vertical. (Click for larger picture) The Nifty is now just above it’s 50 Day Moving Average. The bigger resistance is the 200 day moving average.The month of November saw a 11% drop, of [...]

Posted in Charts, Credit Repair, Nifty, WeeklySummary Comments Off

The Nifty made a two year low recently as it hit 4706, and closed the week at 4710. The Nifty has lost over 11% in November till date. (click for a larger picture) The market has retreated over 25% from the highs, and we’re in a definitive bear zone. P/E too is at 17+, which [...]

Posted in Charts, Credit Repair, Nifty, WeeklySummary Comments Off